Buried in the show notes of the latest episode of The Talk Show is a link to PredictIt.org.1 It’s a gambling site for election outcomes. The way it works is this: you buy a share on a specific bet (e.g. “Will the 2020 Republican nominee for president be a woman?”) for an amount of money between 1¢ and 99¢. If you’re right, you receive $1 for every share you bought. If you’re wrong, you get nothing. The higher the amount it costs to buy a share (i.e. the closer to a full dollar) the more likely it is that you’re going to be right, and hence the lower ROI.


  1. Sometimes Drinking Caffeine is nothing more than a commentary on the commentary at Daring Fireball. ↩︎